Bitcoin Price Holds Above $118,500 Amid Policy Updates and Institutional Developments

Bitcoin is still trading above $118,500, staying within a tight range that has lasted for over two weeks. The price action has been flat, showing no clear trend. But on-chain data points to growing interest from large holders. There’s also a major drop in OTC balances, suggesting fewer private sales by institutions.

Investors are trying to understand two big updates: a new crypto policy report from the White House and a major deal between JPMorgan and Coinbase.

The White House released its first digital asset policy framework on Wednesday. It’s a response to Executive Order 14178 signed by President Trump. The report runs 160 pages and offers many recommendations aimed at making U.S. crypto regulation clearer.

According to a summary, these steps could help the U.S. lead in blockchain. The working group was led by David Sacks, the Special Advisor on AI and Crypto, and included key officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and SEC Chair Paul Atkins.

Despite the weight of this report, Bitcoin barely reacted. It hovered around $111,700 on Wednesday. This quiet response might be due to the report not mentioning the proposed Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, something many investors were watching.

Still, the document proposes clear rules for tokenized equities and Treasury assets. It also asks for guidance on banks using stablecoins and blockchain, more transparency in chartering banks, and better capital rules for digital assets.

JPMorgan–Coinbase Deal Streamlines Crypto Integration

Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan and Coinbase have teamed up. Now, users can connect their bank accounts directly to crypto wallets. This replaces third-party services like Plaid, MX, and Akoya, which used to link banks and crypto platforms.

This could help long-term crypto adoption. It connects traditional banking more directly to crypto. That could be good for Bitcoin in the long run.

Fed Keeps Rates Steady

The Fed decided to keep interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% for the fifth meeting in a row. This met market expectations. Bitcoin held steady around $117,000 after the news.

Not everyone at the Fed agreed. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted against the decision. That’s the first split vote since 1993.

Traders are now watching the Core PCE Price Index. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and could affect Bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin’s On-Chain Metrics Show Continued Accumulation

Despite the extended period of sideways trading and unchanged interest rates, Bitcoin’s on-chain data indicates positive trends.

Data from Santiment reveals that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated an additional 218,570 BTC since late March. These addresses now control 68.44% of Bitcoin’s total supply, adding 0.9% of all coins during this accumulation phase.

Further insight into OTC wallet activity reinforces the accumulation narrative. According to CryptoQuant, BTC balances on OTC desks have declined to historic lows. This suggests that large investors and institutions are currently refraining from selling through private, off-exchange transactions.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range between $116,000 and $120,000 over the past 16 days, following its record high of $123,218 reached on July 14.

Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a pattern similar to that seen after BTC hit its previous all-time high of $111,980 on May 22, when it consolidated for 47 days before resuming upward momentum.

A daily close above the $120,000 resistance level could trigger a continuation of the uptrend toward the recent high of $123,218. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 59 and is trending upward, signaling a potential build-up in bullish momentum.

Conversely, a daily close below $116,000 may result in a pullback toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at $112,952.

As Bitcoin hovers within this critical consolidation range, investors await new data and macroeconomic cues to determine the cryptocurrency’s next move.

Ethereum Turns 10, Stays Strong Above $3,800

Ethereum turned 10 this week. ETH is trading above $3,800 after bouncing off a key support. There are signs that the asset is gaining strength.

The milestone comes amid growing signs of bullish momentum for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

On-chain metrics reflect steady accumulation by large ETH holders throughout July. Whale wallets have been actively increasing their holdings, while exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a decade. Analysts suggest that the ongoing supply contraction, coupled with increasing institutional interest, may pave the way for ETH to challenge the $4,000 mark.

A major development this week came from The Ether Machine, an ether-focused investment firm, which announced on Wednesday that its subsidiary, The Ether Reserve LLC, had acquired nearly 15,000 ETH at an average price of $3,809.9. The purchase, totaling approximately $56 million, aligns with the company’s long-term accumulation strategy and brings its total holdings to 334,757 ETH. The firm disclosed that it still has $407 million in capital allocated for additional purchases.

Whale activity in the ETH market has intensified in recent weeks. According to Lookonchain data, three newly created wallets added 73,821 ETH valued at $283 million within eight hours. Since July 9, 11 fresh wallets have collectively acquired 722,152 ETH, equivalent to $2.77 billion.

While the pace of institutional inflows has slightly slowed compared to earlier in July, interest remains strong. SoSoValue data indicates that U.S.-based spot Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) registered a net inflow of $5.79 million on Wednesday. These funds have recorded consistent positive flows since July 3, with total inflows reaching $5.14 billion so far this month the highest monthly figure since ETF trading began.

Meanwhile, exchange-held ETH reserves have dropped to 18.7 million, according to data from CryptoQuant, marking their lowest level since 2016. The steady decline, observed since early July 2024, reflects diminished selling pressure and a reduced supply of ETH available for trading, factors often associated with bullish trends.

Adding to the scarcity, Lookonchain reported on Thursday that FTX/Alameda staked 20,736 ETH worth $79 million. Between mid-December and early January, the same entity had withdrawn 21,650 ETH from the Bybit exchange, contributing further to a supply crunch and reinforcing the bullish setup.

On the price front, Ethereum faced rejection below the $4,000 psychological resistance on Monday, prompting a pullback toward support at $3,730. However, the cryptocurrency rebounded strongly on Wednesday after testing this level. As of Thursday, ETH remains above $3,800, sustaining its upward momentum.

If the $3,730 support holds, analysts suggest ETH could make another attempt at the $4,000 level. A successful close above this threshold could open the door for a further rally toward the December 9, 202, high of $4,488.

Technical indicators present mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart currently stands at 77, signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) registered a bearish crossover on Wednesday, hinting at potential downside risk. Should ETH close below the $3,730 support level, the next key area to watch would be near $3,500.

With whale accumulation on the rise, institutional inflows maintaining positive momentum, and exchange reserves at multi-year lows, Ethereum’s 10th anniversary arrives during a potentially pivotal period for the asset’s market trajectory.

Ethereum Price Analysis

ETH tried and failed to break $4,000 on Monday, then dropped to $3,730. But it bounced back and was above $3,800 by Thursday.

If $3,730 holds as support, ETH might retest $4,000. A strong move above it could take ETH toward its old high of $4,488 from December 9, 2021.

RSI is at 49, showing oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD turned bearish on Wednesday. That may signal some downside risk. If ETH breaks below $3,730, the next key level is around $3,500.

Still, with whales buying, institutions showing interest, and supply falling, Ethereum’s 10th anniversary could be a turning point.

XRP Holds $2.95 While Market Eyes Fed and White House

Ripple’s XRP stayed above $2.95 on Wednesday. Markets were watching the Fed’s rate decision and a new crypto policy report expected from the White House.

Traders think rates will stay in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, but Powell’s comments may signal what comes next. That’s why everyone is waiting. The crypto report is part of President Trump’s campaign promise to make the US a global crypto leader. It will cover topics like stablecoins, tokenization, and regulatory policy.

One key suggestion is for the SEC to give clearer rules for tokenized stocks and Treasury assets. The task force behind the report includes Congressman Bo Hines, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and OMB Director Russell Vought.

The report comes at a time of political action on crypto. New bills like the GENIUS Act (already signed into law) and the CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Acts (now in the Senate) show growing attention to the sector.

XRP is trading close to $3.00. But futures open interest has dropped from $10.94 billion to $8.57 billion since July 22. That shows traders are pulling back.

Trading volume is also down now at $10.6 billion compared to $41.23 billion on July 18. If this continues, the $3.00 support may be at risk.

Right now, XRP is moving between $2.95 and $3.00. Resistance stands at $3.32. Bullish traders are hoping to get back to the July 18 high of $3.66.

The RSI has cooled off, now at 59. That suggests the market is no longer overbought, which could help bulls. But the MACD gave a sell signal last Friday. If this bearish sign holds, some traders might start selling.

If XRP breaks below $2.95, the next support levels are the 50-day EMA at $2.76 and the 100-day EMA at $2.54. These could act as floors for a possible rebound.